July 10, 2007
A Pleasant Surprise
Chuck Bell was pretty clear about today's weather forecast (and so was Weather 4 Plus Meteorologist whoever on Morning Edition): No rain today. We would experience hot, humid, unbearable, heat, and the weather system causing this misery would hold its ground until tomorrow, when a cold front could be expected to move into the region and bring with it storms and lower temperatures.
So it was with great confidence that I set my antique sculpted-sugar-and-tissue-paper figurine collection outside on the lawn before leaving for work today. I didn't need to, but I knew I could, and so I did.
Then noontime came around and holy moley, the heavens opened and a powerful strong storm tore through the area, bringing wind, rain, and pleasantly cool temperatures:
That's a nearly twenty degree temperature drop over the course of three hours. I'm not complaining. Except about the tissue-paper-and-sugar figurines. There is a small chance that the rain may have damaged them. We shall see.
Posted by cradle at July 10, 2007 05:45 PMAre the figurines edible?
Posted by: Jason at July 11, 2007 11:21 AMI was just reading about stuff like this today...
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/WarmAudit31.pdf
"Unaided judgmental forecasts by experts have no value. This applies whether the opinions are expressed in words, spreadsheets, or mathematical models. It also applies regardless of how much scientific evidence is possessed by the experts.
Among the reasons for this are:
a) Complexity: People cannot assess complex relationships through unaided observations.
b) Coincidence: People confuse correlation with causation.
c) Feedback: People making judgmental predictions typically do not receive unambiguous feedback they can use to improve their forecasting.
d) Bias: People have difficulty in obtaining or using evidence that contradicts their initial beliefs. This problem is especially
serious for people who view themselves as experts."