On ABC's This Week this past Sunday, George Will had a point to make about the reality of Global Warming:
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: ... Let's go on to global warming. The cover of "Time" magazine this morning says "Be Very Worried." They have a special edition on global warming and, George will, I got to present this to you. Because, I mean, we've been debating this for ten years now. You've been doing it for twenty on "This Week." But "time" magazine says...
GEORGE WILL: (Off-camera) Thirty.
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: (Off-camera) Thirty. Excuse me. You're exactly right. Says the debate is over. The serious debate has quietly ended. Global warming, even most skeptics have concluded is the real deal and human activity has been causing it. You're pulling out your charts.
GEORGE WILL: (Off-camera) "New York Times" 1975, sooner or later a major cooling of the climate is widely considered inevitable. Northern hemisphere glaciations. Tell your Governor in Montana to just wait a while. Northern hemisphere glaciations. This according to 'Science" magazine.
How can we take these scientists seriously? One day they're predicting an Ice Age, the next, just the opposite! Who knows what they'll say thirty years down the line?
But let's take a closer look at what the New York Times was saying back then. Lexis-Nexis provides only abstracts (not full text) for 1975. Here are three of relevance from that year:
- May 21, 1975, Wednesday
ABSTRACT: Walter Sullivan article on Natl Acad of Sciences Global Atmospheric Research Program Com rept on importance of climatic changes to global food production and population patterns notes many scientists expect major cooling trend. Revs scientific debate over causes of climatic changes and role of human activity in bringing changes about. Cites debate over role of solar energy variations resulting from cyclic changes in earth's spin axis and orbits and from slight variations in amount of energy radiated by sun. Notes views of Dr Walter Orr Roberts, Dr J Murray Mitchell Jr, Milutin Milankovitch and Dr George J Kukla. Discusses evidence and theories about built-in pendulum swings of climate towards and away from ice ages advanced by Drs F Kenneth Hare, Reginald E Newell, Reid A Bryson and E W Wahl. Revs debate over precise roles of smoke particles, carbon dioxide and indus heat in altering climate and levels of pollution that would cause serious changes. Notes M I Budyko warning about increasing energy consumption by man leading to destruction of polar ice cover, Mitchell stand that pollution-caused climate changes might inadvertently head off ice age. Dr Verner E Suomi heads Acad com. Map of N Amer 20,000 to 15,000 yrs ago shows extent of glacial ice. Tongue of Antarctic ice sheet illus (L).
- May 25, 1975, Sunday
ABSTRACT: Article revs theories about causes of ice ages and speculation about whether new ice age is due. Maps show glacial ice in N Amer 20,000-15,000 yrs ago and in NY and NJ at that time and 15,000-10,000 yrs ago (M).
- August 14, 1975, Thursday
ABSTRACT: Articles written by Dr Wallace S Broecker in Aug 8 issue of Science and NZ scientists M J Salinger and J M Gunn in July 31 issue of Nature question widely publicized predictions that, in coming decades, world climate will deteriorate, severely affecting food production and initiating new ice age. Broecker forecasts a reverse trend that, by first decade of next century, could lead to warmest weather in 1,000 yrs. Sees present cooling trend in north being reversed as more carbon doxide is introduced into atmosphere by burning of fuels. Salinger and Gunn rept that, while, in recent decades, Northern Hemisphere has been cooling, southern latitudes, notably those in NZ, have been warming. Attribute trend to southward movement of subtropical storm systems in Southern Hemisphere. Natl Acad of Sciences recent weather analysis indicating long-term cooling trend recalled (M).
I was too busy potty-training at the time to pay attention, but it sounds as if there may be more consensus about Global Warming now than there was about Global Cooling then. We have thirty more years of data, too.
I'm willing to accept that there is still much we don't understand about climate, and who knows, maybe global warming won't be an issue thirty years from now. The current evidence and analysis seem to suggest otherwise, though.
Posted by cradle at March 29, 2006 06:50 PM